Russian Markets Daily: Macroeconomics, MOEX, TCS, Polymetal, Beluga, Globaltrans,Coal sector, Aeroflot, NCSP, FESCO

Russian Markets Daily: Macroeconomics, MOEX, TCS, Polymetal, Beluga, Globaltrans,Coal sector, Aeroflot, NCSP, FESCO картинка

Market comment


Positive sentiment left Russian equities on Friday with IMOEX falling 0.6% as investors took profit after the recent uptick, absent near-term drivers. MOEX (-4.3%) was the key outcast among top-tiers after a disappointing dividend announcement. A bounce in Brent (+2%) was not enough to help the O&G sector lift the market, but the continuation of this trend may provide some long-awaited support. Until then, we expect sideways trading with some volatility in the names reporting this week 

Fixed Income

There were no pronounced dynamics on the OFZ market on Friday. Trading activity was concentrated in short-term securities with a maturity of less than a year, with the shortest issue leading turnover – 26215, maturing in August 2023 

In focus

Macroeconomics – Monthly inflation in Russia slowed to 0.46%, yearly to 10.99% in Feb – weekly inflation slowed to zero – we believe the Central bank will keep the key rate unchanged due to low inflation in recent weeks

MOEX – 4Q22 IFRS Review: Record high Rb11.2bn NI, disappointing dividend – mostly due to one-off interest income hike – issued disappointing Rb4.84/sh dividend recommendation – mostly negative

TCS – 4Q22 IFRS Preview: expect return to 20%+ ROE – amid a return to loan growth and the moderation of risks – neutral

Polymetal – Company may sell some Russian assets – Highland Gold’s owner Vladislav Sviblov is weighing a purchase of some of Polymetal’s Russian assets – UMMC is another potential buyer – to separate/sell Russian assets, the company must redomicilie from Jersey (UK) to Astana – Polymetal will publish 2022 IFRS results this week (16 March) and we expect an update on the transaction – neutral

Beluga – FY22 IFRS Review: Solid performance – sales were up 30% y/y to Rb97bn and EBITDA margin reached 17.8% – the BoD is likely to announce a recommendation on final dividend for 2022 – positive

Globaltrans – Gondola cars lease rates decline in March – RailCommerce reported that lease rate for gondola cars declined 3.5% m/m – negative for sentiment

News in brief

Macroeconomics – Current account surplus narrowed to $5.8bn in Feb vs $7.1bn in Jan – trade balance narrowed by $1bn to $7.2bn in Feb – low oil prices and a rise in imports caused the trade balance to narrow – another reason for the weaker rouble last month

Coal sector – Russian coal export surged 9% y/y in 2M23 – coal exports from Russia in Jan-Feb rose 9% y/y to 33.7mnt – in February coal exports from Russia rose 8% m/m and 33% y/y to 17.5mnt – export growth is mainly due to increased demand for coal from China – slightly positive for Raspadskaya and Mechel

Aeroflot – Aeroflot group traffic improved 4% y/y in February to 2.9mn PAX – total PAX traffic for all Russian airlines rose 0.8% y/y in February to 6.5mn, while PLF rose 9.2pp y/y to 86.2% (Kommersant) – we expect traffic to show positive dynamics in 2023 due to the low base as airlines have been adjusting route maps for the last year – positive

NCSP, FESCO – Cargo throughput fell 2.8% y/y to 65.4mnt at Russian seaports in February (Rosmorrechflot) – the fall came largely due to decreases in the black sea basin of 0.3mnt y/y in dry cargo and 3mnt in liquid cargo – liquid cargo in the Baltic basin grew 1mnt – dry cargo in Far-East basin fell by 0.6mnt – negative for sentiment in stevedores’ shares

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