Russian Markets Daily: Macroeconomics, TCS Group, Rusagro, Inter RAO

Russian Markets Daily: Macroeconomics, TCS Group, Rusagro, Inter RAO картинка

Market comment


IMOEX closed at its highest level since September yesterday with geopolitical pressure having eased for now. Transport and O&G sectors outperformed, with TMT lagging. A relatively optimistic reporting season has supported the market thus far – SBER and MOEX are set to report this week, with the latter one of Monday’s top performers ahead of the BoD meet today. IMOEX looks set to test 2300, but we may see some readjustment today ahead of the holiday on Wednesday 

Fixed Income

Activity on the OFZ market was rather low yesterday, concentrated in papers with maturities of less than two years, where yields added 2-5bp to 7.1-8.1% per annum. Longer bonds showed a slight decrease in yield by 1-3bp, with minimal turnover. Today the market is unlikely to see noticeable changes or significant activity 

In focus

Macroeconomics – Budget execution improved in February – the deficit narrowed to Rb0.8trn in February after Rb1.8trn in January – Budget spending dynamics normalised amid a rise in non-oil revenues – we see no reason for the Minfin to deviate from a deficit of 2% of GDP for FY23 as per the budget law

TCS Group – Tinkoff bank warned of coupon non-payment on perpetual debt – coupon cancellation is possible under terms of the issue – follows the imposition of EU sanctions – negative

Rusagro – 4Q22 IFRS Review: Unimpressive, as expected – revenue dropped 11% y/y to Rb58bn –adjusted EBITDA fell 44% y/y to Rb59.6bn – neutral

Inter RAO – FY22 RAS: Lower exports offset by dividends and interest income – revenue declined 28.7%y/y to Rb63.2bn – profit from sales decreased 35.7% y/y to Rb25.4bn – net income climbed 19.9% y/y to Rb31.2bn – the reported net income allows IRAO to pay dividends for 2022 in line with our expectations – we estimate DPS at Rb0.213/share (DY of 6.2%) – neutral

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